TOST Toast, Inc. (NYSE) pre-market Feb 11, 2026: Q4 earnings eve, ARR and EPS catalysts

TOST stock trades at $28.65 in the pre-market on Feb 11, 2026 as investors position for Toast, Inc.’s Q4 results due after the close on Feb 12, 2026. We expect revenue growth and ARR metrics to steer the reaction. Key numbers to watch are EPS consensus $0.24, revenue consensus $1.62 billion, and management guidance on subscription and payments ARR.

What to expect in Q4 from Toast and TOST stock

Toast reports Q4 after the close on Feb 12, 2026 and consensus expects non-GAAP EPS $0.24 and revenue $1.62 billion. Analysts will dig into Subscription and FinTech ARR growth, adjusted EBITDA, and any updated guidance. A beat on ARR and profitability metrics could push shares meaningfully higher in the next session.

Revenue drivers and ARR outlook

Subscription services and Financial technology solutions are the primary growth levers. Wall Street estimates Subscription revenue $253.80 million and Payments ARR near $986.68 million. Toast added ~7,500 net new locations in the prior quarter, which supports recurring revenue expansion and cross-sell opportunities.

Valuation, key financials and Meyka AI grade

At $28.65 the stock trades with a price-to-earnings of 66.95, price-to-sales near 2.94, and price-to-book around 8.50. Market cap is $17.32 billion, EPS TTM $0.44, and cash per share $3.17. Meyka AI rates TOST with a score of 79.64 out of 100 (B+, BUY). This grade factors in S&P 500 and sector comparisons, financial growth, key metrics, and analyst consensus. Grades are informational and not investment advice.

Technicals, liquidity and trading setup

Volume is active with 15,525,300 shares traded and average volume 8,894,185, giving a relative volume near 1.30. Short-term indicators show RSI 48.11 and ATR 1.34, signaling neutral momentum. The 50-day average is $34.08 and the 200-day average is $39.19, so the stock trades below both moving averages.

Analyst views, price targets and market context

Analyst coverage is mixed but constructive. Consensus price target sits near $45.55, while recent targets range from $36.00 (DA Davidson) to $56.00 (Morgan Stanley). Institutional ownership remains high at about 82.91%, and recent insider sales have been noted.

Risks and upside drivers for investors

Upside hinges on ARR acceleration, improved margins from high-margin software and payments mix, and adoption of AI products like Toast IQ. Risks include hardware revenue weakness, tariff and credit headwinds, and a rich valuation that amplifies downside on a miss.

Final Thoughts

Key takeaway: TOST stock faces a binary Q4 reaction. A clean beat on ARR and the subscription margin metrics could validate recent product monetization and lift the shares. Conversely, any softening in hardware or payment volumes could pressure the stock because valuation is elevated. Meyka AI’s forecast model projects a yearly target of $49.20, implying an upside of 71.76% versus the current price of $28.65. Analyst consensus price target of $45.55 implies a 58.99% upside. Forecasts are model-based projections and not guarantees. We will watch ARR, adjusted EBITDA, and management commentary on payback periods when Toast releases results after the close on Feb 12, 2026.

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Disclaimer:

Stock markets involve risks. This content is for informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Meyka AI PTY LTD provides market analysis and data insights, not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.